The Economics of Demand Change On The Web

I recall a period during Boom 1.0 when the magazines Fast Company, The Standard and Business 2.0 burst onto the scene. How many of my peers grabbed them, subscribed and talked about articles. Many of us still do; giving a point to print media. But what struck me today is "change" in the online world. The constant, unending change, and our desire for change, our growing demand for change. New apps, new technologies, new solutions, displacement and entangling technologies. They're constantly coming out. And this isn't limited to just consumers. This is across the board; for developers it's Adobe's Air and Flex. For coders it's Ruby On Rails. For consumers it's a new iPhone, Firefox extensions and Social Network apps in Facebook or Bebo.

Those online are, I suspect, going to become the generation and demographic of people who will, and in some ways are, demanding change in the real world as well. Applications, technologies and designs can be changed quite easily in relative terms. Worldly changes take longer. But they are happening. My focus here however, is "change" in terms of the Web.

Now Google has universal search. But the interface really hasn't changed in ten years. Sure I can try some new skins with my iGoogle, same with Yahoo! and some others. But Google hasn't really changed much in terms of design. Personally, I'm OK with that. I like the simplicity of Google's UI, it's clean and I get where I'm going. Even Yahoo! and MSN have learned the art of clean design and simplified UI - do one thing and do it very well.

But I suspect there are some changes coming with Google, and I suspect they will be the first to show us a new way of search beyond just "universal search". This will be driven by new technologies and platforms. With major advances coming in Interactive Digital Media (formerly Rich Media), Google will be faced with changing it's UI. This will be a signal of a broader change in the Web, I would say the looming shift to Web 3.0 which extends the Web even further. The Evernet.

I wonder what the economic ramifications in terms of online business models are as constant change becomes an element of what a product should do? I think the Agile Development Theory for applications so well promulgated by by Jason Fried and 37 Signals is a prime example of incorporating change into the product development cycle, and an economic way of implementing change expectation into a products life cycle. This will be interesting to watch.

The Future of Mobile Devices: Connectors

Almost everyone in a Knowledge Economy business or government department carries at the very least a mobile phone. Many of us carry a Smart Phone (BlackBerry, iPhone, Treo etc.) Many of us use laptops and we connect in coffee shops, airport waiting lounges, clients offices, hotels...increasingly, we can connect almost anywhere and almost at zero cost. I call devices that are hand-held and connect to the Web, part of the Extended Web. The analysts and the pundits, they keep raging about how these devices are the future. They are right but also wrong.

What I think analysts, journalists and pundits have missed is the "how" for mobile devices that extend the Web. This is vital. Even sci-fi flicks have a hard time with this. Some movies and books go so far as to tell us we will "jack in" to the Web (I'm not much of a Sci-Fi reader anymore, maybe I'm missing something) to access the Web through our brains directly. Gives me a shiver. What about you?

What I think the issue with all these mobile devices is comes down to size and subsequently - usability. I carry a BlackBerry Curve and an iPod Touch with WiFi access. I spent two months carrying my Touch around to use as a note-taking device late last year. I tried. But unless you're about 3 feet tall with exceedingly skinny fingers, or a tall elf with skinny fingers or a whiz at stylus tapping - the keyboard is frustrating as all get out. Even with suggestive words. Then there's the BlackBerry, even the larger World model. It has a QWERTY keyboard and I can type pretty fast (I can use it better than the iPod Touch for note-taking) but it is limited to just how much you can type. It's great for SMSing or Tweets to Twitter and short emails. But editing documents? Massaging a PowerPoint/Keynote show? Nope.

Mobile devices have their limits in terms of direct usability. One of the wonderful things about humans is that we are all different shapes and sizes, including our pinkies. But they're all truly too large for lengthy use on a mobile device. So what role WILL mobile devices play?

I think mobile devices will become "Connectors" as much as today they are "Containers", these "Connectors" will be intermediaries for various media. Let's face it, writing this blog entry has me on my full-size MacBook keyboard (I even use a 20" monitor for 2-screen productivity at my desk.) I couldn't put in links, edit and write off of a CrackBerry.

In future, these Connectors will be mobile Containers. We will use them to access "Terminals" in various places. Walk into a Cyber Cafe in 5 years, you will just connect your BlackBerry or iPod Touch or iPhone to a keyboard and monitor (via Bluetooth) and have immediate access to all your files stored in your Web Workspace Centre - you'll be access storage and apps via the Web through your device. It will be secure and safe and no one will be able to follow what you're doing later. This is what mobile devices will really be. Plain and simple, unless manufacturers come up with a really new usability system, I think this is where we're going. Our human digits are just too big for the electronic digits.

The Evernote and the Evernet

It's when something just comes together, that intuitively makes sense with a Web application that you sigh, wish you'd thought of it and sign up for it right away, that thrills me with the Web. But what is really interesting is when it can find sustainability. There are a number of Web apps that get introduced, are seen as cool, people email them around, blog or now "tweet" and thousands sign-up. Great. Eyes for ads or VC money. Three months later, they've faded, the VC money is gone and the creator is struggling to monetize the sight.

Many, including myself, dumped on Twitters parade for a long time. Even though we signed up and used it here and there. Then we started to use it more...now I Tweet a few times a day. Although I get enough to deal with via my BlackBerry I've no interest in txting to Twitter. I say that now...

But this isn't about Twitter, this is about a kind of "mash-up-come-stickie-note" application called Evernote. There've been lots of social bookmarking sites and then there are "reminder" applications, and file search applications like Quicksilver (granted it's not a Web app really) and then there have been clipping apps. Evernote brings the whole thing all together. Seamlessly. Integrating the vital elements of the knowledge workers world; laptop/dekstop, mobile device with camera app, browser. They've looked at a macro-level of the applications, devices and uses of the people on the Web, and understand the "extended web."

So the first thing I wonder is "how do they make the money?" Cool and useful apps are great, but if they can't be monetized for a profit then they're just charity applications. Rather useless for development unless you open source the code. Right now, Evernote is in Beta - good move for this product and following an approach that works; get it out in Beta, measure uptake and understand load factors, usability issues and other glitches. Then develop to refine on the back-end while raising money. An excellent strategy that saves on development cost budgets as well and gets good PR.

But just hanging around the Evernote site and watching the ubiquitous "how to" video done in YouTube player, I decided "I would buy this", without knowing a price. I jabbered with a couple of colleagues and yes, they would as well. I think they could easily charge $50 or a small subscription fee for just the Web based version. In fact, there are several models. It is a scalable architecture (so it would seem) and it blends critical user activities into one spot. Brilliant. If Twitter was the app of 2007, then Evernote should be the app of 2008. Hands down. Looking forward to the formal release...but then Google's been in beta for years and it's just fine.

A final thought - this Evernote, it is yet another example of the Evernet.